Oscar Prediction Extravaganza

This week, B-Roll is taking a detour from upcoming releases to focus on this Sunday's Academy Awards ceremony. In honor of the Oscars, we figured we'd make our own predictions (some based on thoughtful analysis, some based on favoritism, and some based on wild guesses) and see how we stack up Sunday night. Print out your own ballot and follow along at home. Bring on the red carpet!











AND THE NOMINEES ARE...


Best Picture
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Who should win: Frost/Nixon or Milk. Both political. Both featuring actors portraying real people. Both with incredible scripts and leading men up for "Best Actor" Oscars. It's a toss-up in our book.
Who'll probably win: Slumdog Millionaire. While we love director Danny Boyle and thought there were many redeeming qualities about this film (it's beautifully shot, deliciously colorful, the soundtrack kicks ass and we totally love the Bollywood dance sequence in the credits--not to mention it's a pretty good story, too), we're not sure it's as complex as the other nominees. What's harder? Reconstructing fact, or doing journalistic fiction? We're not sure, but we won't be that bummed if Slumdog takes home the gold.


Best Director
David Fincher/The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard/Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant/Milk
Stephen Daldry/The Reader
Danny Boyle/Slumdog Millionaire
Who should win: This year's class is a really quality group of directors, and we'd be more than happy to see any of them take home the trophy. While Howard is probably the most "mainstream," he's worked on enough interesting projects to keep him cred-worthy. In the end, though, I'm going with Gus Van Sant.
Who'll probably win: Danny Boyle. We think the Academy just might be enamored enough with this portrayal of India's poverty (and feeling some guilt over the excess of Hollywood--anyone remember Crash?) that it'll take home two of the biggies.



Best Actor
Richard Jenkins/The Visitor
Frank Langella/Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn/Milk
Brad Pitt/The Curious Case Of Benjamin Buttom
Mickey Rourke/The Wrestler
Who should win: Mickey Rourke. Hands down. In a case of art imitating life, Rourke's film career and his character, "the Ram," in The Wrestler are painfully parallel. Rourke turns in a poignant, subtle performance and forces the audience to back him--even though he doesn't deserve any of our sympathy. Plus, the Academy needs to make up for screwing him out of a nod for Sin City.
Who'll probably win: Mickey Rourke. We're hoping the late release keeps him fresh in voter's minds. But Pitt and Penn are also potentials (though Pitt had a lot of help from CGI), and Langella could be the sentimental favorite. Still, we feel it's the year of Mickey.


Best Actress
Anne Hathaway/Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie/Changeling
Melissa Leo/Frozen River
Meryl Streep/Doubt
Kate Winslet/The Reader
Who should win: Anne Hathway or Melissa Leo. Both turned in incredibly raw and emotional performances. I cried in both films. Not that that's saying much for me, but still...
Who'll probably win: Angelina Jolie. The Academy loves her. If Winslet had been nominated for Revolutionary Road instead, we'd go with her. I think Streep's gonna get shut out.


Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin/Milk
Robert Downy Jr/Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman/Doubt
Heath Ledger/The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon/Revolutionary Road
Who should win: Heath Ledger. I mean, I don't think anyone's gonna argue that he wasn't genius as the Joker. It's too bad it's the same year, though, because it would be super cool to see RDJ win for a comedy, which the Academy almost always ignores...
Who'll probably win: Heath Ledger. Ironic that he's up against Philip Seymour Hoffman again, the guy that got the statue the year Ledger was up for Brokeback Mountain. The Academy will make amends, though a lot of good it will do Ledger now. But I think that even if he were still alive, he probably wouldn't care about the award too much, though...


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams/Doubt
Penelope Cruz/Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis/Doubt
Taraji P. Henson/The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei/The Wrestler
Who should win: Marisa Tomei. For all the same reasons she won for My Cousin Vinny: She steals the scene every time in what little screen time she gets.
Who'll probably win: I don't know what way the Academy will go... I feel like the two nominees from Doubt will cancel each other out, and Henson's performance in Button isn't really memorable. Cruz was excellent, but a little charicature-y. Maybe they'll go with Tomei, too.



Best Animated Feature
Bolt
Kun-Fu Panda
WALL-E
Who should win: WALL-E. This is a no-brainer.
Who'll probably win: WALL-E. The Academy knows it's too wussy to put an animated feature up for Best Picture, so they'll try to play nice here.




AND ALL THE REST...

Art Direction
Toss up between Button and The Dark Knight; though Revolutionary Road was really great art-wise, it was very subtle.

Cinematography
Roger Deakins didn't get to finish The Reader because it filmed for too long and he was previously committed to another project (hence the dual credits for that film), but he's amazing (other credits include Revolutionary Road, There Will Be Blood, The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford). He should have it in the bag--if it were any other year. We're going with Anthony Dod Mantle from Slumdog, FTW.

Costume Design
RevRoad, as the dark horse...

Documentary Feature
Man On Wire

Documentary Short
Smile Pinki

Film Editing
Slumdog Millionaire

Foreign Language Film
Waltz With Bashir

Makeup
The Dark Knight (dude, the Joker? C'mon). Button has a good shot, too, but so much of what they did was CGI, too. Still. They made Brad Pitt look pretty damn young (and insanely hottt).

Original Score
Slumdog Millionaire (the composer is a pop god in India)

Original Song
One of the two from Slumdog. M.I.A. is golden!

Short Film, Animated
Oktapodi

Short Film, Live Action
Auf Der Strecke

Sound Editing
Slumdog Millionaire

Sound Mixing
No one knows what this even means, so the best bet is on the Best Pic nod, and like I said before, I think the Academy will go with Slumdog.

Visual Effects
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

Adapted Screenplay
Frost/Nixon

Original Screenplay
Happy-Go-Lucky (which was criminally overlooked in a bunch of other categories)


Okay, a bunch of that was just somewhat-educated guessing. Don't worry, I'll keep score and let you know how I did...